April 24, 2014 – Those Pesky 50-50 Guesses

Experts seem to get their straight guesses right most of the time.  Why?  What makes them better guessers than you, or me?  Are they just really lucky?  Obviously not.  In virtually every guess, there is some tiny inference in the play, or the bidding, to tilt the odds one way or the other.  Experts see these inferences, and a surprising number of complete guesses become certainties.  Boards 7 and 13 were both such sure guesses. 

I’ll return to those shortly, but first, let’s talk about the two huge swings from your match.  Both of these came about because of poor competitive bidding judgment by North-South, or, to be more accurate, inconsistent judgment.  Let’s start with Board 1:  As South, you hold

No one is vulnerable, and there are two passes to you.  Your call? 

There is no right or wrong here, but I like bidding, and will bid something in third seat with almost any excuse.  I would probably open an ugly three clubs.  I could live with an off-beat two diamond opening, or even a one diamond opening.  Disciplined bidders would pass, and hope to describe the hand with an unusual notrump bid later, but I like to cut into their bidding room as quickly as possible.  Still, passing might easily be best.  Our South passed.  Here was the full hand:

The auction went:

This cost 1100 when the defense found their diamond ruff.  Diamonds would play a trick better, and save some IMPs.  So, why did North choose five clubs, rather than five diamonds?

Well, most modern experts play 4NT in such sequences as showing any two-suiter, so North chose five clubs in case partner had clubs and hearts.  That makes sense, but, facing a club-heart two-suiter, why would North ever bid again?  You’ve got a trump trick, partner likely has a heart trick, and maybe a club or another heart will score, or even the diamond queen.  5NT was a very poor bid.  My guess – North started picturing South with a ton of minors, in which case there is a huge double fit, and …

By the way, I am not convinced that playing 4NT that way is correct.  Consider this example:

West opened four spades, North bid 4NT, and South, preferring clubs to diamonds, tried five clubs.  Going down in five clubs, cold for a heart slam, was not a spectacular success. 

Using 4NT to show one of three two-suiters makes finding your best fit quite awkward.  Some top players prefer losing one of the combinations.  Some play that 4NT guarantees diamonds.  That helps, but, swap the minors around above, and North-South would wind up in five diamonds.  We guarantee hearts, and never seem to have a problem finding our longest trump suit (unless the Gods deal us both minors!). 

It was South’s turn to be incredibly inconsistent on Board 5.  At favorable vulnerability, South picked up:

East opens 1C in front of you.  What would you bid?

Four diamonds looks about right to me, though I would regret that choice if it turned out we were cold for 3NT.  Partner will be in a good position to judge whether to save or not, and, on a really good day, West might be bullied into a light four heart bid, and give us back our 1100.  Our South went low, and overcalled a simple one diamond.  It went Double P 1S, and South tried two diamonds.  4S P P?  Now South bid five diamonds.  Sorry, but this is silly.  If the hand is worth such a high dive, then bid five diamonds on the first round.  Otherwise, get partner involved, and trust his or her decision. 
Here was the full hand:

The auction:

West doubled 1D, suggesting both majors, and East, with no diamond stopper, chose to bid a three card major.  That happens, and, when you double, you should not assume a call like one spade will always deliver four spades.  Still, West bid a game – what else?  Maybe West should simply invite, but, vulnerable, I bid four and hope partner makes it.  My twelve count opposite a minimum opening, and an unenthusiastic partner, means that ten tricks will be a struggle, but, it’s IMPs, so you bid a game.

When South saved, West should blow a kiss his way, say “Thanks, and I double”.  No, West kept bidding and finally North did the doubling.  Here, five diamonds was slated to go off three tricks, saving against a game with no chance whatsoever.  That would be another 500 away, but West turned that into 800 the other direction. 

On to the play.  Two spade part-scores really appealed to me.  Both involved guesses, and in both, our players chose wrong.  Were they unlucky?  Was there some inference lurking about that could have pointed them in the winning direction?

First, some easy preliminaries.  Say you hold this spade suit:

The count of the hand indicates that East has three spades, West two.  How likely is it that East holds the spade jack?

That’s easy – 60%.  Three-to-two.  Now, suppose East opened the bidding, and has to hold the spade ace.  How likely is it that East holds the spade jack?

50%.  That may be a bit surprising, but both East and West hold two unknown cards in the suit.  Half the time the jack will be among those two cards. 

Try this simple suit combination:  Spades are trumps, and you can only afford one loser.  What is the best play:

 

Nothing to this – play low to the queen, and, eventually finesse East for the jack.  This wins four tricks if the suit is 3-2 with the jack onside, and also if West started with A or AJ tight.

Now tackle the same suit if East must hold the spade ace for the bidding. 

The suit must split for you.  Finessing East for the jack works whenever East started with AJ or AJx – four holdings.  We do much better by leading low to the king and low back, ducking unless the jack appears.  This picks up Axx with East – three holdings, and any of the four doubleton aces. 

These thoughts come from Board 13.  In our room, East-West played in three hearts (North-South, actually, but I rotated the hands), a contract doomed by the awful trump split.  In the other room, North pushed on to three spades.  Try that as a play problem:

West leads the heart four, third from even, or lowest.  You throw a club from dummy and win the queen with your ace.  Plan the play.

There seem to be two options. 

 

1. We can try to develop diamonds, or
2. Trump hearts on the table.

If we go after diamonds, we’ll finesse in diamonds now.  That will lose, and?  Maybe the defense will play trump ace, trump.  We can win in hand, and finesse again in diamonds.  Over to the trump king, and try the diamond ace.  This feels like we’ll need a diamond onside, diamonds three-three and trumps splitting.  Not too likely.

If we try ruffing hearts, we will lose a club and a diamond.  We’ll also lose at least one trump trick, and maybe another heart.  Let’s see – heart ruff, club to the ace, heart ruff.  Maybe the king will come down.  That would help, if not, when we come off the table, the defense will win and draw dummy’s trump.  Feels like this approach will need the trump jack falling.  Also not great, but it seems a better chance than the diamond option, so:

At trick two, declarer trumped a heart (two from West, we can forget about Kxx over there).  Club to the queen and ace, another heart ruff, and a club to East’s king.  East cashed the trump ace (eight from West),   played the heart ten to West’s king, and discarded the heart eight on a high club. 

You trump, to leave:

Now what?

Obviously, we can simply cash the spade queen and hope the jack drops.  We know that hearts were 4-5, and that East started with two clubs.  East may well have been 3-5-3-2 originally.  The spade eight looks hopeful – perhaps West started with J8 alone in trumps.  Or, maybe West meant the eight as a suit preference card, to show the heart king.  Could we make the hand if East started with the AJx  in trumps? 

Yes!  Play a diamond to the ace, trump another club, and exit our diamond.  We will have left the Q9 in trumps, and can finesse East for the jack.  That line has to be right – we could always put up the queen in the ending, and make if West started with J8 alone.  This line will delay our decision in trumps until trick twelve, and we may learn something along the way, or West may win the diamond and have to lead into our trumps. 

So, declarer played to the diamond ace, trumped the club (as East threw a diamond), and exited a diamond to East’s king.   Back came the trump three.  The six and jack are missing.  East has one and West the other.  It’s Guess time!  Your choice?

This is not a guess at all.  There are two very powerful arguments pointing in the same direction.  First, there is the defense.  You could not get to this position on your own.  Had West played a diamond, rather than shortening your trumps with a club, you would have no choice.  The contract could never be legitimately made had East started with AJ3 in trumps.  Admittedly, this is a subtle defensive error, and easy to make, but, West had no reason to misdefend holding two small trumps, and every reason in the world to give you this chance with the jack about to drop.

The other argument is even more compelling, and makes the play almost a sure thing.  East started with, either

or

 

Well, would you open 1H or 1NT with the first hand?  Yep, me too.  West has the spade jack. 

The other exhibit was a defensive problem:

The auction, both sides vulnerable, was

You lead the club queen.  North wins the ace and leads the diamond jack.  Partner wins the king, cashes the club king, and tries a trump.  South wins the spade ace, loses the diamond eight to partner’s ten, and tries the trump jack on the next trump.  You are in with the queen, and … How do you defend?

South has shown up with two clubs, and bid two diamonds, which, over a forcing notrump, might be on a three card suit.  South is likely to have five spades, and will certainly hold the heart ace.  South’s shape is unclear – could be 5-1-5-2, or 5-2-4-2, or 5-3-3-2. 

Could we set the hand if South is 5-1-5-2?  Maybe, but only if partner’s last trump is the eight.  We can lead a low club and let partner upper-cut declarer, promoting our trump ten.  That is actually a pretty attractive defense.  Could that cost?

Well, yes.  If South is, say, 5-2-4-2, with both the heart ace and queen, and with the spade eight, the contract will make.  Is there a defense to set the hand if it looks like this:

 

Sure.  Lead the diamond queen, and let partner overtake and give us a diamond ruff!  So, this seems like another guess.  If South has the five-five hand, we have to play partner for the spade eight.  Otherwise, we can set the hand by getting a diamond ruff, and that will be crucial if South has the heart queen and spade eight.  Pure guess, or is there some inference to draw?

This is also easy.  Partner is a passed hand, and has shown up with ten points.  Partner can’t hold the heart queen!  The five-five danger hand would mean partner passed 8xx Q109xx AK10 Kx.  Not possible!  Play the diamond queen and get your ruff.  The full hand:

No doubt, I make this stuff sound easy, but it isn’t.  Catching all of these inferences takes lots of practice, and concentration.  Even then, you will miss things.  Take this hand – when I first looked at it, I forgot that East was a passed hand, and lost the obvious. 

By the way, declarer should finesse trumps on the first lead, while there is still a trump on the table to protect diamonds.  There is no defense after that.