April 17, 2014 – Play the Best Possible System!

We are all system nerds – we love conventions and gadgets, and we really want to play the very best system out there.  I understand.  I am as guilty of this as anyone, but, really, your choice of system is not very important.  The difference, in IMPs per match, between an ordinary system and the very best Meckstroth-Rodwell behemoth of a system is quite tiny.  Matches are won through bidding judgment, through card play skill, through better opening leads, through lucky finesses.  Meckstroth and Rodwell could take us on, playing 1950’s Goren standard, and they would crush us. 
Here is a simple example of systems in action: 

 

Playing my system, which is, of course, the world’s best system, I would open the North hand 1NT and play there.  Not good bidding.  There are plenty of layouts where 1NT would fail, while we can make +110 or +130 in diamonds, or even clubs.  That is hardly surprising.  South has two doubletons, so playing in our eight card trump fit rates to be much better than playing in notrump.

Standard bidders should fare much better, opening the North hand 1D.  Unfortunately, these same Standard bidders can’t raise with the South hand.  2D would be strong, and 3D pre-emptive.  So, Standard Souths would bid 1NT and reach the same inferior part-score. 

Goren, of course, would bid 1D – 2D, and be shocked that we can no longer raise partner with four card support, and some shape.   System differences are small, and gain on some hands, lose on others.  So, why do I lead off saying, “Play the Best Possible System”?  I have said this before, but it needs repeating:

             The best system is the one where you and your partner are in agreement!

As a simple example, if you double a contract for penalties, partner should agree and know that this double is for penalties.  It makes no difference if some experts say the double should be take-out, or support, or a maximal game try, or …  who cares?  Maybe some other way is marginally better, but the worst possible choice is pretty obvious – I think it is penalties and partner thinks it is take-out! 
This was board five from Sunday night.  North-South were vulnerable, and the auction went:

 

What does this double mean?  Experts argue over this type of sequence all the time.  Some insist, vehemently, that the double is take-out.  Others laugh and mock.  “How can you force partner to bid at the two-level when you couldn’t act the first time?”  To them, this shows a strong hand with primary diamonds, essentially a penalty double.  Who is right?  Don’t know, don’t care.  Only one thing matters – that you and your partner agree on a meaning.  At the table, East explained the double as a light take-out.  West thought it showed a good hand, and passed 1NT doubled, which became the final contract.  (Why?  System forced you to suppress primary support for partner and bid 1NT, but, after the double, South should certainly bid two diamonds.  Thank East and show your support!)

This is an exciting contract.  West led the heart four, fourth best leads.  How would you play your doubled part-score?

Clubs look like your best source of tricks.  One reasonable approach is to start on clubs, hoping to win four clubs, two hearts, and a spade.   Can we afford to give up a club trick?  That will give the opponents two diamonds, the spade ace, a club trick, and whatever hearts they establish.  If hearts are five-three, this line will lead to certain defeat.  Still, the auction and the lead suggest that hearts are splitting, so this is an acceptable plan.  Aside from a bad heart split, can anything go wrong?

Yes.  If an opponent can hold up on the club king, you won’t have any obvious entry to hand.  You will need East to hold the spade ace.  Unfortunately, West seems to have most of the cards (East didn’t enter the auction the first round), and if West happens to have that spade ace, the hand will fall apart.  Would playing on diamonds be any better?

Maybe.  If either honor is onside, you will likely get two diamond tricks.  Add to that the club ace, two hearts, and a spade, and we are still a trick short.  So we will need a second club trick.  I like combining these approaches.  Win the heart and lead the club jack from the table.  If this loses to the king, hope hearts are 4-4.  If the defense ducks, we switch back to diamonds. 
What would work at the table?  Here was the full hand:

South needed to develop diamonds to make the contract.  At the table, South played club ace, club, club.  West won and cleared hearts.  When the spade king lost to the ace, West continued spades, and declarer could only win five tricks, -500.  Ouch.  Was South’s line all that bad?  Not really.  Trade the diamond king and the spade ace, and declarer would succeed, while I would go for a number.  The fault lay in the bidding.  North would score up an easy +130 in diamonds, while South had to guess well to make 1NT doubled, for a measly 180.  South should have bid two diamonds. 

East-West, in the meantime, collected a juicy number, but  I don’t give them much credit.  Defending 1NT doubled on our 18 points was pretty dangerous.  East-West got lucky.  Next time know your system.  If the double shows a good hand, then have a good hand!  If the double is take-out, take it out!  But come to an agreement.

Let’s turn to a play problem:

 

With no one vulnerable, the auction at both tables started out:

 

At one table, North passed three hearts – my choice.  The other North raised to four.  West led the spade jack to partner’s king.  East shifted to the club three.  Plan how you would play in both contracts, three hearts or four.

Attacking dummy’s strongest suit seems odd.  Almost certainly, clubs are 5-1, and East has shifted to a singleton.  Getting one of dummy’s club winners trumped out would be very bad, and certainly fatal in game, so I would win the club and play a trump to the queen.  This looks best in either contract.  If you do that, the finesse wins.  When you lay down the trump ace next, East drops the king (but the jack is still out).  What now?

Time to count winners.  We have five trump tricks, two clubs and a diamond.  That’s eight.  It will be very easy to set up a spade winner for nine, so three hearts is now ice cold.  Here is my next rant of the day:

You are playing IMPs.  As declarer, make your contract.  On defense, set theirs.  Don’t  worry about overtricks! 

In three hearts, lead another trump and guarantee your nine tricks.  It would be very hard to go down in three, but the declarer in the other room managed it.  At this point, South led a club to dummy, and East trumped it.  Suddenly North had only one more entry, and the spade winner vanished.  Nine rock-solid winners turned into eight. 

You have the same nine sure tricks in game, but need to develop one more.  That may come from diamonds or clubs.  It is still right to lead another trump, throwing a spade from the table.  There are two possibilities:

1.  West wins the trump.  Good – West can’t attack diamonds profitably, and we can use dummy’s clubs.  If West gets out a high club, win and lose a club to West.  North’s club spots are strong enough to win four tricks in the suit:

 

Should West try a low club instead, stick in the nine, which will win, and lead a high spade for trick ten. 

Game is home if West has the five clubs that we suspect, and the heart jack.

2.  East wins the trump.  Not so good.  Still, if East plays a spade, we have the entries to work on clubs.  So, East must shift to a diamond.  Suppose East shifts to the diamond five.  This will be the position:

 

What do you play from hand?

We need one extra trick from diamonds.  I see three choices:

1.   Play the diamond queen.
2.   Play the diamond nine.
3.  Play the diamond seven.

Which is best?

All the evidence so far suggests that West started with four diamonds, East three – East was 6-3-3-1 originally.  Putting up the queen works if East has the king.  Playing the nine works then as well, and also develops an extra winner if East started with J105 in diamonds.  So 2 is better than 1.  If we insert the seven, and it is covered by the eight, we’ll lead to the queen eventually.  If the seven draws the jack or ten, we can lead low to the nine late in the day, not the queen.  That works if East started with J85 or 1085.  However, it loses to 2 if East started with either K85 or J105.  So, lines 2 and 3 are mathematically equivalent.  I choose 3, simply because many defenders would mess up and lead the jack from the J105, not the five. 

Here was the full hand:

 

There was no way to guess diamonds, and four hearts had to fail.  The only way to make four hearts would be to double finesse East for the king and jack of trumps, and run all your trumps.  West gets caught in an odd strip squeeze.  Deep Finesse would make the hand, I wouldn’t (actually Deep Finesse would lead the spade four and set the contract). 

The board was a push – down one at both tables, but the declarer in three should never go down.  My rant was really triggered on board 4:

At the other table, West judged to save over four spades.  With both finesses onside, that save worked very well – five hearts was cold.  So East-West were slated to lose 11 IMPs on this hand, setting four spades 100.  However …

West started with the club ace, and another club.  South won the king and took the diamond finesse.  At that point East could see three winners, two clubs and the diamond king, and partner would certainly have an ace, so the contract was set.  Nope, East ducked the diamond smoothly.  Snide bridge players describe that as “a very fine play, but on some other hand.” 

          When you have the contract set, set it!

Once the diamond finesse held, declarer had ten top tricks. 

         When you have your contract made, make it!

Declarer drew trumps and took another diamond finesse.  Rant, rant, yell, scream.  This one lost, and the contract was down again.  However, East shifted to the heart queen before cashing the club – still OK, but West overtook, and the club trick, the setting trick, vanished.